Valley City Public Schools projects future school enrollment numbers

Valley City Public School Superintendent Josh Johnson shared the following information, via email, with students, family and friends:

Frequently, I'm asked about our student enrollment in the school district and what we are projecting for the next few years. Please see the information below that will provide you with a brief snapshot of our past, present, and future student enrollments at Valley City Public Schools.

Past Enrollment

The 10-year average district total enrollment from 2012-2022 was 1,088 students (83.6 per class). The highest total enrollment number during this time was in 2015-2016 with 1124 students.

Current Enrollment

This school year, 2022-2023, we averaged 1,030 students in the school district (79.2 per class).

Future Enrollment For the next school year, 2023-2024, we are projecting an enrollment of 980 students (75.3 per class). We just graduated 109 seniors and are projecting next fall's kindergarten class at 60 students. This is a lower number than the five average of 77 kindergarten students that have been coming into the school district.

As we look forward five years and project our total student enrollment in 2028, our school district will be closely following several key factors with our student enrollment. This will include.

1 Class sizes (Will kindergarten classes continue to average around 75?)

2 Homeschool/Virtual learning numbers (There has been an increase in homeschool and virtual learning numbers statewide since 2020)

3 Open enrollment (Historically, we have more students coming into district v. going out to other schools, will this trend continue in the next five years?)

4 Non-public education (What impact will the new Christian school in VC have on student enrollment numbers?)

5 Community growth/ decline (Will economic development, jobs, and housing have a positive or negative impact on our k-12 enrollment in the next five years?)

Yes, we've known for a long time that this year's senior class was going to decrease our total student enrollment in 2023. What we hadn't predicted was an enrollment of 1030 students in 2022-2023 and a number approximately 58 students below the 10-year enrollment average. On top of that, we will be enrolling a small kindergarten class this fall with about 17 students below the five-year average. Whew!!

No, the sky isn't falling. Valley City has an amazing community with an outstanding commitment to education. The future is bright for Valley City and Valley City Public Schools. I acknowledge I'm a bit biased, but I believe that we have the best students, parents, and educators in North Dakota. It is likely that our new normal for student enrollment is closer to 1,000 than it will be to 1,100. We will embrace these changes in our student enrollment and make the necessary adjustments organizationally as a school district in the next few years. If you are looking for a silver lining with this enrollment report, the 9-12 student enrollment will average around 315 students in the next five years, making Valley City High School Class B eligible with the North Dakota High School Activities Association in 2025-2026.

If you have any questions regarding this enrollment report, please feel free to contact me via email or phone at 701.845.0483. Sincerely,

Mr. Josh Johnson Superintendent Valley City Public Schools